Why must Inception win the summer?

A week ago, two articles, from big name reporters in the industry, talked about studios unsure what to make next. What did they ask agents for? Original scripts. If you missed the articles, take a look:

Vulture

Deadline

As someone who needs to break in with an original spec script, I couldn't ask for better news. The thing is though, as someone close enough to the industry, I know that doesn't mean the studios are ready to open their wallets. Money is still very very tight.

This town has a short memory. What won the box office this past weekend with over $100 million? A sequel. Toy Story 3. While many will spin the story of it not doing as well as its predecessors, when all is said and done, Toy Story 3 will be a very profitable movie for Disney. That's what the guys and gals who control the wallet want to see.

Take a look at the big winners so far this year and you can see that this cycle of sequels, remakes/reboots, and heavy adaptation (comics, novels) is far from over. Looking at other years, I'd say it all began in 1999 (the same year Toy Story 2 came out) but really got going in 2002.

By 2002, we had the following active "franchises" going:

Star Wars, Harry Potter, The Matrix, Lord of the Rings, Spider-Man, X-Men, Toy Story, Shrek, The Mummy, Mission: Impossible, Rush Hour, Ocean's Eleven, Jurassic Park, Austin Powers, Men in Black, Ice Age, Bourne, Bond, Spy Kids, The Fast and the Furious, American Pie

That's right. In four years, between 1999-2002, the age of the franchise was born with a film from each of those listed above. I'm willing to bet more of those listed above have another movie coming along soon than those that don't. But is the end of the cycle in sight? Maybe a crack.

The question, now in 2010, is when are we going to get back to 1998, the last time before Avatar that original material (Saving Private Ryan) was the top film of the year at the box office and original content was in the top spots? Well, Inception winning the summer could add more fire to the original material flames. But can it beat the likes of Twilight, Iron Man, and Toy Story?

I'm hoping so. I want Inception to win the summer because until original material starts to outperform the decade old franchises, those with the money will continue to push the sequel button no matter how many great original scripts come across their desks, like mine. A cycle only ends when a mass shift in frame of mind occurs. Thanks to James Cameron and hopefully Christopher Nolan next, that shift is about to begin.